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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently acts as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic resurgence wins the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or merely the biggest upset.

But the latest field is profoundly different. The list of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference champions declining and recent also-rans rising together. Under an normal year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a wild and fun season, he's up against multiple other outstanding candidates.

This is how the projected ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right environment, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to create magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the level of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current is not a normal year!

The area where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the season in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still