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New Yorkers will learn who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who governs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against each other. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has led his rival by significant margins in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an race that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with Americans' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' current model of considered, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A New York rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an force of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has resorted to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his father, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in recent days, after video emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd